Barack Obama's lead in the polls and in the battleground states appears to be increasing, and it's looking ever more like he's on for a substantial victory next month.
Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, all states won by Bush four years ago. McCain is also only just a whisker ahead in Missouri and Indiana - the latter a state which Bush won by more than 20 points in 2004.
Electoral Vote has similar figures, although they have North Carolina listed as a tie. Their electoral college count shows Obama currently on 338 and McCain on 185, with the 17 votes for North Carolina down as a tie.
Those figures are backed up by the latest national polls. CBS/New York Times has Obama leading McCain 50-41 while AP/GfK has it 47-41. It looks like Obama has benefitted both from the financial chaos (and McCain's bizarre antics in response to it) and from his performance in the opening debate.
Things look even worse for the Republicans if you look at the situation in the Senate races. Republican incumbents are currently behind in Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina and New Hampshire, while open Republican seats in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia look like almost certain gains for the Democrats. Republican candidates in Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky and Minnesota (where comedian Al Franken is the Democratic candidate) are also in very tight races.
It looks like Republicans are in for a real pasting on November 4. And, short of a disastrous performance by Obama in one of the final two debates or possibly a major terrorist attack in America, it's difficult to see what they can do to turn things round.
The Second Referendum, or, Obliquity
2 months ago