Sunday, 19 October 2008

American elections: my predictions

OK, I think we're close enough to November 4 to start making predictions about what will happen in the American elections.

Barack Obama will win the presidential election. He will win all the states which Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada and Virginia, giving him a 310-228 win in the electoral college. McCain will just hold on in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana and North Dakota. Obama will win the popular vote by six percentage points, 52-46, with 2 per cent for others.

In the Senate, the Democrats will have a 58-42 advantage (or 57-43 when Lieberman is expelled from the Democratic caucus). They will win all the seats in which they are currently ahead in the Electoral Vote predictor, with the exception of Minnesota where Al Franken will be beaten by less than two percentage points.

In the House, the Democrats will have a 245-190 advantage.

Please feel free to use the comments to make your own predictions.

2 comments:

Norfolk Blogger said...

Typical Lib Dem, covering your bets and not saying anything at all. What do you think the result will actually be, come on, get off the fence

(yes, I am being sarcastic)

James Schneider said...

Very sane, sensible analysis.

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