OK, I think we're close enough to November 4 to start making predictions about what will happen in the American elections.
Barack Obama will win the presidential election. He will win all the states which Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada and Virginia, giving him a 310-228 win in the electoral college. McCain will just hold on in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana and North Dakota. Obama will win the popular vote by six percentage points, 52-46, with 2 per cent for others.
In the Senate, the Democrats will have a 58-42 advantage (or 57-43 when Lieberman is expelled from the Democratic caucus). They will win all the seats in which they are currently ahead in the Electoral Vote predictor, with the exception of Minnesota where Al Franken will be beaten by less than two percentage points.
In the House, the Democrats will have a 245-190 advantage.
Please feel free to use the comments to make your own predictions.
Recommended Lib Dem blogs and websites
- Andrew Reeves
- Caron's Musings
- Charlotte Gore
- Cicero's Songs
- Cllr Debra Storr
- Councillor Alex Graham
- David Boyle
- Duncan Borrowman
- Fraser MacPherson
- Freedom Central
- Himmelgarten Cafe
- Jock Coats
- John Hemming MP
- Lib Dem Blogs Aggregated
- Lib Dem Voice
- Liberal Burblings
- Liberal Bureaucracy
- Liberal England
- Love and Liberty
- Lynne Featherstone MP
- Mark Reckons
- Millennium Elephant
- Norfolk Blogger
- Peter Black AM
- Quaequam Blog!
- Sara Bedford
- Scottish Liberal Democrats
- Social Liberal Forum
- Stephen Glenn
- Steve Webb MP
- The People's Republic of Mortimer
- UK Liberal Democrats
Other good political sites
Miscellaneous non-political sites
- ► 2009 (111)
- POLL: Who's run the greatest postwar US Presidenti...
- The Barack Obama Show
- Jumping on the Brandwagon
- Obama on inspirational form
- Palin pallin' around with convicted felons
- Even McCain's staffers are voting Obama!
- Obama within margin of error in Arizona
- Playing the blame game
- Today is D-Day
- That's dedication for you
- My task made easier
- Mind the Gap!
- McCain staffers: we can't win Colorado
- Obama's lead is tightening but he's pulling away
- Lembit Opik, blogging and Ros Scott
- Powell's endorsement of Obama
- American elections: my predictions
- The American Future - not perfect but worth watchi...
- Clean sweep for Obama
- My vote's in the post
- Tavish: Let's learn from Obama
- Thoughts on the presidential election
- Reminder: Tavish Scott bloggers' interview
- Let me see if I've got this straight
- The Veep debate: it wasn't even close
- Obama and the Bradley effect
- Brown's reshuffle statement in full
- I'm Mandy, why me?
- He who lives by the sword...
- Is it turning into a landslide?
- ▼ October (30)