Since I posted about John McCain's woes yesterday, things are continuing to look bad for him in the opinion polls.
According to Electoral Vote, Obama has strengthened his position slightly, now on 286 to 252 for McCain. New Hampshire, which was listed as marginally for McCain yesterday, is now listed as leaning towards Obama.
Obama's lead is especially encouraging given the situation for Kerry against Bush in 2004 at this stage of the race.
There's also good news for Obama from some of the individual polls (although all single polls must obviously be taken with a health warning). He's apparently 10 points ahead in Michigan and six points in front in Wisconsin, both of which were previously on a knife-edge. That Wisconsin poll also indicates that Obama is doing pretty well among women voters, in contrast to the expectations from some in the Republican camp that women voters would swing behind Sarah Palin.
More interesting is this poll in North Carolina showing Obama edging ahead. It may be a rogue, but it does indicate that some states you might not expect are actually in play, with Indiana, Nevada and West Virginia all falling into this category. Florida is also still very tight.
The good news for Obama is backed up by this poll of key states, which I saw courtesy of Justin Webb. If Obama does have a good debate (assuming McCain turns up), then he'll be a big favourite to win.
The Second Referendum, or, Obliquity
1 month ago